$GlobalVillage$

Market Status: Are the Bulls Dominant?
Currently, the market is in the "short-term oversold rebound followed by bulls attempting to regain dominance" phase.
1. Support Confirmation: The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that ETH has formed a clear double bottom or support stabilization in the 2886-2900 range.
2. Indicator Resonance:
• 1-hour/4-hour charts: Price has successfully broken through the middle band (BOLL) of the Bollinger Bands, MACD has completed a golden cross below the 0 line and started to expand, a typical rebound initiation signal.
• Daily chart: Price has retested the daily middle band (around 2939) and closed higher, indicating that the overall upward trend logic remains intact.
3. Conclusion: Bulls are favored in the short term. As long as the price stays above 2940 (4h middle band), upward momentum will continue.
II. Profit-taking Target Suggestions
My cost basis is at 2900, and the current floating profit is very comfortable. I will take profits in stages:
• First target (TP1): 3000 - 3010
• Psychological level and near previous high on 15-minute/1-hour charts. Upon reaching this, reduce position by 30%-50% and move stop-loss to the entry price (break-even).
• Second target (TP2): 3060 - 3080
• This is the upper band resistance level of the daily Bollinger Bands. If the market volume breaks through 3000, it is likely to test this level.
• Third target (TP3): 3200+
• A medium to long-term target, depending on whether major positive news supports a breakout above 3100.
【Strategy Sharing】 ETH retests support confirmation, has the bulls' rally horn sounded?
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 2900 (position established)
Profit-taking targets: 3000 / 3070 / 3200
Stop-loss setting: 2870 (stop if it falls below the previous low)
Trade Entry Idea:
1. Technical support: ETH, after retesting the 2880-2900 support zone on the 4-hour level, shows a clear stabilization pattern, with bottom volume starting to rebound.
2. Indicator recovery: 4-hour MACD has completed a bottom golden cross, KDJ is diverging upward, and the price has effectively broken above the middle bands of the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands, signaling a shift from weak to strong.
3. Major trend analysis: The daily retest of the middle band support is effective, and the overall upward channel remains unbroken. Currently, it is in the stage of secondary rally after retesting, with an excellent risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risk Reminder: Approaching the 3000 level may cause volatility. It is recommended to move the stop-loss to the entry price after reaching the first target to lock in profits!
#ETH #以太坊 #交易策略 #GatePost

As of 2025-12-22 16:00 (UTC+8), BTC is currently at 88,750 USD, with a 24h fluctuation of 87,900-89,630 USD, showing a bearish trend, and a short-term rebound needs to break out with higher trade volumes for confirmation.
1. Key Price Levels (Support/Resistance)
• First support: 88,000 USD (24h low + previous hourly low), if broken, look for second support at 86,500 USD (daily MA30)
• First resistance: 89,500 USD (24h high + previous hourly high), if broken, look towards the second resistance at 90,000 USD (psychological level + daily MA10)
• Key boundary: 88,500 USD, stabilizing towards bullish, losing ground towards bearish
2. Interpretation of Multi-Period Indicators
• Daily: RSI≈41 (neutral to weak), MACD bars weakening, dual lines adhering below the zero axis, bears in control; price between MA30 (86,500) - MA10 (90,000), trading volume shrinking, dominated by fluctuations.
• 4 hours: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price below the middle band. The KDJ is turning up from a low position, indicating a short-term rebound demand, but the trading volume is insufficient, and the momentum is limited.
• 2 hours: EMA5/10 intertwined, price moving flat along the middle track, oscillating slightly upwards, must have higher trade volumes to break through 89,500 to confirm a stronger trend.
Three, Trading Strategies (Executable)
1. Bullish Strategy
◦ Opening a position: Stabilize and go long as it pulls back to 88,200-88,400 USD, stop loss at 87,800 USD (breaks 88,000 support)
◦ Target: First target 89,500 USD (reduce position by 50%), second target 90,000 USD (remaining take profit)
◦ Trigger: Close above 89,500 on the 4-hour chart with higher trade volumes, increase position to target 90,000
2. Short Selling Strategy
◦ Open position: Short when rebounding to 89,300-89,700 USD with a stop loss at 90,200 USD (break above 89,500 resistance)
◦ Target: First target 88,500 USD (reduce position by 50%), second target 88,000 USD (remaining take profit)
◦ Trigger: Close below 88,000 for 2 hours with higher trade volumes, increase position to watch 86,500
3. Watch-and-wait conditions
• The price is fluctuating narrowly in the range of 88,500-89,300, with trading volume < 70% of the 24h average, observing and waiting for a breakout direction.
IV. Risk Warning
• The market fluctuation (weakness in US stocks/ETH) may trigger a downward movement; if it falls below 88,000, it will turn bearish.
• If it breaks through 89,500 but the volume is insufficient, be cautious of a false breakout and take profits or cut losses in a timely manner.
#2025Gate年度账单 $BTC ‌

Looking at history, what position is Bitcoin in during the current cycle?
Today let's mainly talk about Bitcoin. I hold a certain proportion of stocks related to Bitcoin. What is the current price level? What is the expected trend for the next year? We need to analyze it.
1. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin Bitcoin has a very obvious cyclicality, which has been basically 4 years per cycle based on the past few occurrences, and is very stable! As for the reasons behind the cycle, there are various opinions, but the core influencing factor lies in the Bitcoin halving event. The Bitcoin halving is a pre-set, automatically triggered event in the Bitcoin network, and its core mechanism aims to control the issuance speed of Bitcoin, ensuring that its total supply remains constant at 21 million coins, thus building its scarcity value foundation.
The driving force of this event occurs approximately every 210,000 new blocks produced (about every four years), halving the block reward for miners mining new Bitcoins.
Each occurrence of halving represents a decrease in the rewards obtained by miners with the same investment, leading to the exit of some unprofitable miners, which will delay the generation of Bitcoin.
It can be understood that as the cost of gold mining increases and the amount of tradable gold in the market decreases, the price goes up.
Therefore, shortly after the halving occurs, the price of Bitcoin will experience a surge. Once the price rises to a point where there is still profit even with the halving of mining rewards, more people will participate in mining, leading to an increase in supply, after which the price will fluctuate.
Of course, since the production of Bitcoin is virtual and does not have a mapping in the physical world, its fluctuations and cycles do not entirely follow the balance of supply and demand.
There are also factors such as liquidity, social consensus, speculative frenzy, market sentiment, and so on.
But the final result shows that starting from the halving cycle, the price peaks after 12-18 months, then begins to correct; it takes another 12-18 months for the price to bottom out, then starts to rebound, until the next halving begins.
2. Price fluctuations during the period
The most recent halving is scheduled for April 2024, so let's take a look at where we are in the cycle now.
The table above summarizes the price trends of Bitcoin over the last 4 cycles, and it can be seen that:
The price reaches its peak 12-18 months after the halving, with the peak price at least doubling compared to the price at the time of the halving.
The retracement after the peak is astonishing, reaching up to 80%.
It generally takes 13 months from the peak to the low point of a cyclical rebound.
Let's take a look back at the performance of this round of the cycle:
1) In the 18th month after the halving in April '24 (October 2025), a peak occurred with Bitcoin nearing $130,000;
2) After reaching a high point, a pullback to a low of 80,000 dollars, with a pullback magnitude of 36%;
Low point lasted only 1 month
If we look at the trend of the previous cycles, the current $80,000 does not seem to be the real low point, as the pullback is only 36%, far from the pullback scale of previous cycles.
In addition, the cycle is too short, or even if 80,000 dollars is the low point, it is not yet the turning point for Bitcoin prices to rebound; the market will need at least 6 to 12 months to stabilize and recover.
Of course, due to the significant improvements in Bitcoin-related policies and the social environment over the past two years, there are many voices suggesting that this time might be different. So if it is indeed different, what kind of trends can we expect in the market next?
3. Future price trends and investment strategies We will simulate from three perspectives: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic:
Pessimistic: 80,000 is not the price bottom, and the decline should approach at least 60%-70%, meaning the price will drop below 50,000 dollars; moreover, from a time perspective, it will need to stabilize and begin to recover by the second half of 2026.
Medium observation: 80,000 is the price bottom, but the price will fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 until the second half of 2026, when it will start to enter an upward channel.
Optimistic: 80,000 is the price bottom, and the correction period has significantly shortened, starting to rise in the first half of 2026.
Which of the three is more inclined to which type of person has different judgments. Since the future cannot be predicted, we can only adjust our positions based on the risks and returns we can accept in different situations of the three.
$BTC ‌

2025.12.20SOL
Review on December 19: Yesterday, SOL showed a trend of oscillating upward during the daytime, rising from the previous low of 116.78 to a high of 127.61 in the evening. It then retraced to a low of 123.55, failed to hold above, and pushed up to 127.86. It then retraced again to the current level of 125.67, now in a sideways consolidation phase.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Bollinger Bands Analysis
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing with the price between 130 and 118. The middle band is trending downward at 124. The candlesticks are in a retracement after breaking through the middle Bollinger Band. SOL is currently oscillating above the middle Bollinger Band.
MA Moving Average Analysis
The MA5 and MA10 are forming a golden cross and trending upward, corresponding to prices 125 and 123. The candlesticks are consolidating above the MA5, indicating a consolidation phase. The consolidation range is between 127 and 125.
MACD Analysis
The MACD lines are below the zero line and forming a golden cross upward, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The market may continue to rise.
RSI Analysis
The two lines are parallel, with values between 97.08 and 97.49. The market is in an oversold phase, and the price may rise slightly. Watch whether the RSI breaks above 100, which could accelerate the upward trend.
Conclusion: Sideways consolidation phase
Support levels: 123-121-118
Resistance levels: 127-129-131
Long position strategy: If the price does not break above MA60, consider opening a short position around 129, with a re-entry point near 131. Stop loss above 133 after a confirmed breakout.
First take profit: 125
Second take profit: 123
Short position strategy: If the price does not fall below MA10, consider opening a long position around 123, with a re-entry point near 121. Stop loss below 118 after a confirmed break below.
First take profit: 127
Second take profit: 130

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The batch of 5-year FIL mining contracts is about to expire, and many miners are planning to withdraw. This is actually a normal business cycle, not a sign of project failure.
What will happen when miners exit? In the short term, network hash rate will decline. But from a different perspective—since they stop mining, the daily token unlock and sell pressure will also decrease. From the market pressure standpoint, this is actually a positive signal.
The early release phase of FIL has already passed most of its course, and the remaining part will slow down increasingly. The market supply pressure is gradually easing. This means the selling pressure has been alleviated.
For ordinary participants, waiting idly is not a good strategy. Some platforms now offer FIL fixed-term financial products with annual yields ranging from a few percentage points to double digits. Locking funds here allows participation in long-term growth while earning stable returns. Contract trading is prone to pitfalls amid volatility; it’s better to allocate part of your funds to stable accumulation and interest earning.
Interestingly, institutions are quietly taking action. Grayscale has been continuously accumulating FIL this year, with very low purchase costs and a clear strategy—systematic accumulation rather than aiming for a one-step big buy. Ordinary investors can learn from this approach: increase allocation when prices fall, and maintain positions while collecting interest when prices rise.
During a bear market, treat it as a yield-bearing storage; when a bull market arrives, you not only hold tokens but also enjoy additional interest income. Market opportunities often favor those who dare to act calmly while others hesitate.

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