#Gate正式接入Polymarket Crypto market spot contracts and futures outside another money-making path—Polymarket

What is Polymarket? Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform based on blockchain technology. It allows users to trade and bet on the outcomes of various future events such as politics, economics, technology, culture, sports, weather, and even cryptocurrencies, thereby forming collective predictions about event outcomes.
Simply put, you can understand it as a market where you "vote" with real money to predict the future. For example, predicting the Federal Reserve's decision in March: betting "yes" or "no" on whether there will be a rate cut of 50 basis points or more in March. If you bet "yes", it means you believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points in March. If the rate cut decision turns out as you predicted, your 1 dollar investment would yield 1000 dollars in profit. But if the final decision differs from your expectation, you lose your invested amount. The difference from pure gambling is that before the event's final result is determined, you can exit at any time by selling your betting shares. Since the probability of the event itself is constantly changing, once you place a bet, your floating profit or loss from your investment continuously changes.
For example, if you bet "no" with 5 dollars on the rate cut issue above, indicating you believe the Federal Reserve won't cut rates by 50 basis points in March, and currently the probability of no rate cut is over 99%. This means if the final decision maintains the interest rate unchanged, your 5 dollar investment would still be 5 dollars, meaning your account breaks even with no profit or loss. This is because the event of no 50 basis point rate cut in March is approximately a certain event. However, if before the rate cut decision is announced, something major happens in the United States or economic issues emerge, causing the probability of no rate cut in March to decline somewhat, and a small portion of the market begins to believe this event might cause an unexpected Federal Reserve rate cut. In this case, with your "no" bet, you might have invested 5 dollars but have a floating profit of 2 dollars. Before the final decision is released, if you sell your betting shares, you would gain a real 2 dollar profit. But if you don't sell out your floating 2 dollar profit in time, and the rate cut decision eventually comes out maintaining the unchanged interest rate with no rate cut, then your floating profit disappears, and the system automatically settles at break-even. This is quite interesting—after betting on a predicted event, you can exit at any time based on probability changes, allowing you to choose to cut losses or take profits before the event's final confirmation. This is unlike traditional predictions where you simply wait for the result after placing your bet.
Therefore, Polymarket is not a completely gambling platform, because the predicted probability itself can be financialized, and probabilities can be traded in financial forms by buying low and selling high. So the changes in probability themselves are tortuous and tradable.

What is the relationship between Polymarket and the crypto market?
First, Polymarket uses blockchain technology at its foundation, utilizing smart contracts on the blockchain to handle transactions and settlements. Once the event result is confirmed, the smart contract automatically executes, with winning contracts valued at 1 dollar and losing ones at 0. Users gain returns through buying low and selling high or holding until expiration.
Second, Polymarket accounts can trade through cryptocurrencies. For example, we can deposit funds from trading accounts like G into this platform to conduct prediction market trades. Additionally, we can directly invoke decentralized wallets for trading, just as conveniently as calling wallets in dapps.
Finally, Polymarket has predictions about cryptocurrency price movements.
We can predict based on Bitcoin's 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and other time periods whether the price will rise or fall within each cycle.
Combined with Chan theory, if we currently judge that a 15-minute level decline is about to start, and a 15-minute level decline requires at least 5-9 hours to complete, then we can predict that the next 4 hours or 8 hours will be bearish, with Bitcoin's price moving downward. Based on this judgment, we could bet that the current or next 4-hour period is bearish. As Bitcoin's price changes minute by minute and second by second, the probability of its 4-hour period rising or falling constantly changes. Therefore, regardless of whether you bet on a rise or fall, your odds are also constantly changing. Your floating gains or losses in the account also fluctuate. However, we can still apply this betting model to generalized financialization. Through our understanding of short to medium-term market trends, we can place bets.
For example, on March 4, when the 1-hour large bullish candle directly pulled to 69688, based on basic crypto market knowledge and understanding, this pattern would likely continue to rise afterward, at least breaking through the previous high of 70096. So we bet 1-hour bullish and wagered 100 dollars. As a result, in the first half hour there was a slight pullback, and the account was in a floating loss state. In the second half hour, it started rising, with Bitcoin directly pulling to 71000. Eventually the 1-hour bullish prediction succeeded. In just one hour, wagering 100 dollars yielded a profit of 140 dollars, more than doubling the investment.

How to make money on Polymarket in the crypto market?
1、Quantified compounding in prediction markets
Quantitative trading should be familiar to everyone, such as quantitative trading in Bitcoin spot market, quantitative trading in futures contracts, quantitative trading in stock markets or other markets. It can be understood as: through programs, we utilize indicators at the underlying level, historical transaction volumes and other data, as well as mathematical models and statistical analysis to find patterns and probability advantages in the market, to design a set of buying and selling rules. When price movements match the pre-designed buying strategy, the program automatically buys for you. When price movements match the selling strategy, the program automatically sells for you.

2、Obtaining Polymarket airdrops

Currently, Polymarket grants points for trading volume and interaction reaching certain levels, which can be exchanged for future airdropped tokens.
From current information, Polymarket is very likely to issue its token in the second half of this year or next year. Continuous trading can earn you their airdropped tokens.
Airdrops are estimated at around 1000-3000 USD per account.