#美联储降息政策 The Federal Reserve's 2026 "cautiously dovish" tone sounds very comforting, but I have to pour cold water on it—there are hidden risks that high-flyers chasing risk assets tend to overlook.

If the rate cut expectations fall short, those who jump in under the FOMO of "rate cuts coming soon" will be the next batch of trapped investors. Looking at history: every time the market is overly optimistic about the Fed's policy, it is often followed by an unexpected reversal. Sticky service sector inflation and resilient labor markets—these all indicate that the path to rate cuts won't be so smooth.

Let me be frank: the current logic for buying risk assets is betting that the Fed will be more dovish than expected. But the problem is, Powell will step down in May. Who will take over? Can market expectations for the new leadership's policies remain stable? This itself is a ticking time bomb.

Another critical detail—USD short positions are at multi-year highs. This means that once the dollar rebounds, these positions will be forced to close, further suppressing risk assets. Any loud talk about "liquidity improvement" at that point will be pointless.

My simple advice: if you really want to get in, don't step on the gas fully. Layer your entries and set stop-losses. History has shown that the most profitable rebounds are always accompanied by suffocating pullbacks. This time won't be an exception. Be wary of voices claiming "now is the best time to buy," as such statements often appear at market tops.