#BTC是否会突破12万 I believe that BTC is expected to break 120,000$ this week for three reasons::

On Wednesday (the day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision), a critical juncture will arrive - the market widely expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the interest rate down to the 4.00%-4.25% range. This decision not only affects the U.S. stock market and bond market but also directly influences the nerves of risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders have already placed their bets on this policy shift by leveraging their positions. Rate cut expectations: Behind the 92.6% probability, the data provides the answer.

Why is the market so certain about "interest rate cuts"? The core logic lies in two sets of key data:
On one hand, the economic reports for July and August have already sent signals - the U.S. labor market is beginning to cool down, and the core inflation rate continues to decline. These two indicators are important bases for the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, and they also set the stage for last month's first rate cut; on the other hand, the data from the prediction market Myriad is even more direct: the current market believes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is as high as 92.6%, which is almost an expectation that is "set in stone."

Even though the U.S. government shutdown has caused some economic data to be "discontinued," Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's previous remarks about "ending quantitative tightening" have quietly revealed the underlying message— the central bank's stance on "loosening monetary policy" is already very clear, which gives cryptocurrency investors more confidence. The market has reacted: open contracts have surged, and Bitcoin is nearing 120,000? With clear expectations of interest rate cuts, the crypto market has already taken action in advance.
According to CryptoQuant data, the total open interest in Bitcoin (the value of all outstanding derivative positions) has surged from $33 billion last week to $37.63 billion, indicating that more traders are betting on the market using leverage tools. Correspondingly, the price of Bitcoin has risen from $107,600 to $116,000, just a step away from the $120,000 mark.

However, we must also be clear-headed: the current open interest of 37.63 billion is still lower than the 47 billion when Bitcoin reached its historical high of 126,000 USD on October 6. As market observers have pointed out, some of the upward potential may have already been priced in. Whether it can break through key levels next will depend on the "statement details" from the Federal Reserve—such as whether Powell will clearly indicate a "gradual easing cycle," which would directly mean more accommodative liquidity going forward, and liquidity is the "fuel" for risk assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, the views of Bit CEO Gracy Chen are quite insightful: she believes that this rate cut has already been digested by the market, but the "easing signal" released by Powell is the key. If Bitcoin can hold the support level of $112,000, it is expected to challenge the range of $118,000-$120,000 before the end of the month; meanwhile, the continuous inflow of funds into ETFs and the easing of trade tensions are also contributing to the market's "brick by brick" construction.

For ordinary investors, there is no need to get caught up in "guessing the rise and fall" this week; the focus should be on two key things:
First, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled,
Second, whether Powell mentions the "subsequent easing pace". If these two signals meet expectations, Bitcoin may ride the wave of liquidity to challenge 120,000; if they fall short of expectations, the risk of a pullback due to leverage also needs to be mitigated in advance.

The current cryptocurrency market is like standing in front of the "eye of the storm"—beneath the calm surface lies a struggle between capital and policy, and Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision will provide the first clear answer.