#美联储维持利率不变 On March 18th local time, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced the March interest rate decision as scheduled. The core content aligns with market expectations, but numerous details conceal shifts in policy orientation, serving as a key indicator for global monetary policy direction in 2026 and directly affecting the pricing logic of global assets.

The most closely watched core message of this decision is the unchanged interest rate: The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, consistent with market consensus expectations. The vote passed 11:1, with the sole dissenting vote from a Federal Reserve governor who advocated an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points, reflecting minor internal disagreements on economic outlook and policy path, but overall presenting a "solid hawkish" tone.

Notably, this policy statement includes an important new addition—a first explicit mention of the Middle East situation. The statement indicated that the escalating Middle East conflict carries high uncertainty regarding its impact on the global economy, energy supply, and inflation trajectory. This represents the first time the Federal Reserve has incorporated geopolitical conflict as a core variable in policy deliberations, highlighting heightened disruptions to U.S. monetary policy from the current global situation.

The dot plot further clarified the future pace of rate cuts: maintaining the unchanged midpoint path of 1 rate cut in 2026 and 1 additional cut in 2027, without adjusting rate cut expectations despite recent disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls and weakening economic data. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials slightly raised their 2026 inflation and economic growth forecasts, indicating continued confidence in U.S. economic resilience, and raised the long-term neutral rate to 3.1%, signifying that future rate levels will be higher than previously expected, further solidifying the "higher for longer" interest rate framework.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell further released policy signals during the post-meeting press conference. He emphasized that the prerequisite for rate cuts is seeing inflation persistently and credibly decline to the 2% target level. Current policy has no fixed path, and the Federal Reserve will assess employment, inflation data, and geopolitical risks at each meeting, not ruling out dynamic adjustments in stance based on changing circumstances.

Powell also mentioned that the energy price increases triggered by the Middle East situation may exacerbate inflation stickiness, which has also become an important consideration for the Federal Reserve's pause on rate cuts. This Federal Reserve decision reflects both firm resolve in fighting inflation and exposes policy dilemmas under multiple pressures from geopolitical conflict, energy price volatility, and slowing economic growth. For global markets, the expectation of "higher for longer" will continue to suppress risk assets, support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields; while the uncertainty of the Middle East situation causes commodities and safe-haven assets to exhibit high volatility characteristics.

Subsequently, markets will focus on tracking U.S. inflation data, employment performance, and Middle East developments. These factors will all influence the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy adjustment pace and continue to roil global capital market movements.